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WA Coverage - Provided by Dan Conrad

VIC, Mystic Area

Fri 29/08/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

20%

Updraft Velocity

0.66m/s 129 ft/min

Temperature

5 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

18km downwind XC or 6 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 29/08/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNW) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 43kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

10%

Updraft Velocity

0.92m/s 180 ft/min

Temperature

7 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 0.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

9.75km downwind XC or 1.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 29/08/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNW) 36kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 47kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

10%

Updraft Velocity

1.03m/s 202 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 1.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

10km downwind XC or 1 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 29/08/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

10%

Updraft Velocity

0.2m/s 39 ft/min

Temperature

1 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -5.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

9km downwind XC or 3 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 30/08/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(SSW) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 54kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

1430 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

2.33m/s 457 ft/min

Temperature

6 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -8.3 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

35.1km downwind XC or 5.4 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 30/08/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(SSW) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 47kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

1523 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

2.22m/s 435 ft/min

Temperature

6 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -9.2 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

35.1km downwind XC or 5.4 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 30/08/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(SW) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 40kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

1271 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

1.55m/s 304 ft/min

Temperature

6 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -6.7 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

34.2km downwind XC or 7.2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 30/08/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(SW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 36kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

5 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 31/08/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(SW) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Winds Aloft

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

60%

Updraft Velocity

1.03m/s 202 ft/min

Temperature

6 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -0.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

48km downwind XC or 30 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 31/08/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

873 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

60%

Updraft Velocity

1.29m/s 253 ft/min

Temperature

7 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.7 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

49.5km downwind XC or 27 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 31/08/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

40%

Updraft Velocity

0.94m/s 184 ft/min

Temperature

7 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 0.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

34km downwind XC or 16 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 31/08/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Winds Aloft

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

6 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -0.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 01/09/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1206 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

50%

Updraft Velocity

1.75m/s 343 ft/min

Temperature

9 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -3.1 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

52.5km downwind XC or 21 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 01/09/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1274 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

50%

Updraft Velocity

1.73m/s 339 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2.7 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

54km downwind XC or 18 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 01/09/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

20%

Updraft Velocity

0.74m/s 145 ft/min

Temperature

9 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 2.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

17.5km downwind XC or 7 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 01/09/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 1.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 02/09/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

969 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

40%

Updraft Velocity

1.52m/s 298 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.7 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

35km downwind XC or 14 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 02/09/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

1198 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

50%

Updraft Velocity

2.04m/s 400 ft/min

Temperature

9 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -3 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

54km downwind XC or 18 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 02/09/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

937 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

1.22m/s 239 ft/min

Temperature

9 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -0.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

27km downwind XC or 9 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 02/09/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

9 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 2.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 03/09/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WSW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1328 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

60%

Updraft Velocity

2.13m/s 417 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -5.3 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

63km downwind XC or 25.2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 03/09/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1179 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

60%

Updraft Velocity

1.79m/s 351 ft/min

Temperature

9 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2.8 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

64.8km downwind XC or 21.6 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 03/09/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1332 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

70%

Updraft Velocity

1.93m/s 378 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -3.3 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

73.5km downwind XC or 29.4 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 03/09/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

7 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 0.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 04/09/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1067 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

60%

Updraft Velocity

1.85m/s 363 ft/min

Temperature

11 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 0.3 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

63km downwind XC or 25.2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 04/09/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

1316 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

50%

Updraft Velocity

1.95m/s 382 ft/min

Temperature

13 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -0.2 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

52.5km downwind XC or 21 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 04/09/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNW) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

1447 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

40%

Updraft Velocity

1.86m/s 365 ft/min

Temperature

14 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -0.5 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

44.4km downwind XC or 12 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 04/09/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 40kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

13 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 6.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 05/09/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNE) 40kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 47kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

844 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

20%

Updraft Velocity

1.47m/s 288 ft/min

Temperature

14 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 5.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

20.5km downwind XC or 1 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 05/09/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 43kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 58kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

1144 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

20%

Updraft Velocity

1.85m/s 363 ft/min

Temperature

17 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 5.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

25.2km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 05/09/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 47kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 68kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

2028 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

20%

Updraft Velocity

1.8m/s 353 ft/min

Temperature

19 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to -1.3 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

27.95km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 05/09/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 79kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

17 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 10.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Guide

This is aimed primarily at the club level pilot who wants to know what to expect for the next week.

Data is calculated from the GFS model data using the RASP calculations daily.

Wind strengths are graded for aircraft suitability.

Wind speeds are average wind speeds, gusts will be higher.

Conditions are graded for how the average pilot will feel about them.

Great flying conditions for XC

Turbulent XC flying conditions

Dangerous flying conditions

Likely Poor XC flying conditions

Problems? Suggestions? Send me an email....