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WA Coverage - Provided by Dan Conrad

VIC, Mystic Area

Fri 11/07/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

10%

Updraft Velocity

0.24m/s 47 ft/min

Temperature

5 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

8.75km downwind XC or 3.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 11/07/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

10%

Updraft Velocity

0.21m/s 41 ft/min

Temperature

6 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -0.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

9km downwind XC or 3 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 11/07/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 40kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

7 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 0.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 11/07/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 43kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

6 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -0.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 12/07/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Winds Aloft

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

90%

Updraft Velocity

1.05m/s 206 ft/min

Temperature

6 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -0.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

72km downwind XC or 45 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 12/07/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

902 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

60%

Updraft Velocity

1.34m/s 263 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

51km downwind XC or 24 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 12/07/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

40%

Updraft Velocity

0.96m/s 188 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 1.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

34km downwind XC or 16 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 12/07/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

3 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -3.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 13/07/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNE) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

10%

Updraft Velocity

0.48m/s 94 ft/min

Temperature

5 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

9km downwind XC or 3 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 13/07/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNW) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 36kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

1047 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

1.52m/s 298 ft/min

Temperature

9 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.5 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

33.3km downwind XC or 9 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 13/07/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNW) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 47kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

10%

Updraft Velocity

1.06m/s 208 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 3.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

9.75km downwind XC or 1.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 13/07/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 58kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

6 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -0.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 14/07/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 4kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Winds Aloft

(N) 4kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

815 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

1.35m/s 265 ft/min

Temperature

3 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -5.2 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

77.5km downwind XC or 55 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 14/07/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1173 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

70%

Updraft Velocity

1.77m/s 347 ft/min

Temperature

6 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -5.7 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

71.4km downwind XC or 33.6 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 14/07/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

0.77m/s 151 ft/min

Temperature

6 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -0.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

25.5km downwind XC or 12 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 14/07/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

2 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -4.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 15/07/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

1043 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

1.61m/s 316 ft/min

Temperature

5 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -5.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

99km downwind XC or 54 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 15/07/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1358 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

80%

Updraft Velocity

1.93m/s 378 ft/min

Temperature

7 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -6.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

81.6km downwind XC or 38.4 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 15/07/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WSW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

10%

Updraft Velocity

0.36m/s 71 ft/min

Temperature

7 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 0.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

8.5km downwind XC or 4 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 15/07/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

3 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -3.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 16/07/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

909 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

70%

Updraft Velocity

1.47m/s 288 ft/min

Temperature

6 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -3.1 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

59.5km downwind XC or 28 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 16/07/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1087 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

60%

Updraft Velocity

1.71m/s 335 ft/min

Temperature

7 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -3.9 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

63km downwind XC or 25.2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 16/07/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

932 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

40%

Updraft Velocity

1.3m/s 255 ft/min

Temperature

7 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2.3 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

36km downwind XC or 12 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 16/07/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

3 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -3.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 17/07/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 4kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Winds Aloft

(N) 4kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

0.72m/s 141 ft/min

Temperature

7 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 0.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

77.5km downwind XC or 55 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 17/07/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

1089 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

90%

Updraft Velocity

1.7m/s 333 ft/min

Temperature

9 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.9 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

89.1km downwind XC or 48.6 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 17/07/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

930 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

70%

Updraft Velocity

1.27m/s 249 ft/min

Temperature

9 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -0.3 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

57.75km downwind XC or 31.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 17/07/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Winds Aloft

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

6 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -0.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 18/07/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

928 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

70%

Updraft Velocity

1.5m/s 294 ft/min

Temperature

7 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2.3 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

57.75km downwind XC or 31.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 18/07/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1220 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

60%

Updraft Velocity

1.85m/s 363 ft/min

Temperature

9 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -3.2 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

61.2km downwind XC or 28.8 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 18/07/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1071 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

50%

Updraft Velocity

1.43m/s 280 ft/min

Temperature

9 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.7 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

51km downwind XC or 24 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 18/07/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

5 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Guide

This is aimed primarily at the club level pilot who wants to know what to expect for the next week.

Data is calculated from the GFS model data using the RASP calculations daily.

Wind strengths are graded for aircraft suitability.

Wind speeds are average wind speeds, gusts will be higher.

Conditions are graded for how the average pilot will feel about them.

Great flying conditions for XC

Turbulent XC flying conditions

Dangerous flying conditions

Likely Poor XC flying conditions

Problems? Suggestions? Send me an email....

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