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WA Coverage - Provided by Dan Conrad

VIC, Mystic Area

Sat 23/09/2023 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

1258 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

2.06m/s 404 ft/min

Temperature

14 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 1.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

99km downwind XC or 54 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 23/09/2023 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1430 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

2.21m/s 433 ft/min

Temperature

16 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 1.7 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

102km downwind XC or 48 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 23/09/2023 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1386 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

1.85m/s 363 ft/min

Temperature

16 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 2.1 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

99km downwind XC or 54 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 23/09/2023 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Winds Aloft

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

20%

Updraft Velocity

0.26m/s 51 ft/min

Temperature

15 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 8.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

16km downwind XC or 10 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 25/09/2023 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNE) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

977 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

60%

Updraft Velocity

1.52m/s 298 ft/min

Temperature

17 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 7.2 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

49.5km downwind XC or 27 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 25/09/2023 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

0.71m/s 139 ft/min

Temperature

16 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 9.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

25.5km downwind XC or 12 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 25/09/2023 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(E) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Winds Aloft

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

40%

Updraft Velocity

0.41m/s 80 ft/min

Temperature

14 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 7.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

32km downwind XC or 20 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 25/09/2023 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(E) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

10%

Updraft Velocity

0.34m/s 67 ft/min

Temperature

14 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 7.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

8.75km downwind XC or 3.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 26/09/2023 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

1017 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

80%

Updraft Velocity

1.35m/s 265 ft/min

Temperature

15 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 4.8 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

79.2km downwind XC or 43.2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 26/09/2023 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1465 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

2.41m/s 472 ft/min

Temperature

17 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 2.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

99km downwind XC or 54 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 26/09/2023 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

1517 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

80%

Updraft Velocity

1.93m/s 378 ft/min

Temperature

17 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 1.8 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

81.6km downwind XC or 38.4 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 26/09/2023 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

0.53m/s 104 ft/min

Temperature

16 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 9.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

24.75km downwind XC or 13.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 27/09/2023 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WSW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

1753 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

60%

Updraft Velocity

2.4m/s 470 ft/min

Temperature

18 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 0.5 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

63km downwind XC or 25.2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 27/09/2023 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WSW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

1880 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

60%

Updraft Velocity

2.53m/s 496 ft/min

Temperature

19 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 0.2 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

64.8km downwind XC or 21.6 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 27/09/2023 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WSW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1744 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

50%

Updraft Velocity

2.01m/s 394 ft/min

Temperature

19 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 1.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

54km downwind XC or 18 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 27/09/2023 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WSW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

17 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 10.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 28/09/2023 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1214 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

1.92m/s 376 ft/min

Temperature

18 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 5.9 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

99km downwind XC or 54 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 28/09/2023 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1313 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

2.01m/s 394 ft/min

Temperature

19 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 5.9 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

102km downwind XC or 48 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 28/09/2023 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1096 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

80%

Updraft Velocity

1.56m/s 306 ft/min

Temperature

20 C It will be pleasant on the ground. It will be down to 9 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

81.6km downwind XC or 38.4 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 28/09/2023 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

18 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 11.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 29/09/2023 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

1164 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

50%

Updraft Velocity

1.95m/s 382 ft/min

Temperature

18 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 6.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

54km downwind XC or 18 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 29/09/2023 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 40kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

1333 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

40%

Updraft Velocity

2.08m/s 408 ft/min

Temperature

19 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 5.7 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

45.6km downwind XC or 9.6 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 29/09/2023 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 40kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

1740 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

1.89m/s 370 ft/min

Temperature

21 C It will be pleasant on the ground. It will be down to 3.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

33.3km downwind XC or 9 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 29/09/2023 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 47kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

20 C It will be pleasant on the ground. It will be down to 13.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 30/09/2023 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

998 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

70%

Updraft Velocity

1.71m/s 335 ft/min

Temperature

18 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 8 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

59.5km downwind XC or 28 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 30/09/2023 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

1214 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

60%

Updraft Velocity

1.89m/s 370 ft/min

Temperature

21 C It will be pleasant on the ground. It will be down to 8.9 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

61.2km downwind XC or 28.8 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 30/09/2023 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1154 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

50%

Updraft Velocity

1.53m/s 300 ft/min

Temperature

22 C It will be pleasant on the ground. It will be down to 10.5 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

51km downwind XC or 24 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 30/09/2023 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNE) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

21 C It will be pleasant on the ground. It will be down to 14.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 30/09/2023 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNW) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1214 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

80%

Updraft Velocity

1.99m/s 390 ft/min

Temperature

17 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 4.9 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

79.2km downwind XC or 43.2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 30/09/2023 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1389 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

90%

Updraft Velocity

2.09m/s 410 ft/min

Temperature

19 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 5.1 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

91.8km downwind XC or 43.2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 30/09/2023 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

1249 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

70%

Updraft Velocity

1.64m/s 321 ft/min

Temperature

20 C It will be pleasant on the ground. It will be down to 7.5 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

71.4km downwind XC or 33.6 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 30/09/2023 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Winds Aloft

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

0.29m/s 57 ft/min

Temperature

19 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 12.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

24km downwind XC or 15 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Guide

This is aimed primarily at the club level pilot who wants to know what to expect for the next week.

Data is calculated from the GFS model data using the RASP calculations daily.

Wind strengths are graded for aircraft suitability.

Wind speeds are average wind speeds, gusts will be higher.

Conditions are graded for how the average pilot will feel about them.

Great flying conditions for XC

Turbulent XC flying conditions

Dangerous flying conditions

Likely Poor XC flying conditions

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