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WA Coverage - Provided by Dan Conrad

VIC, Mystic Area

Tue 13/05/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

1251 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

90%

Updraft Velocity

1.86m/s 365 ft/min

Temperature

18 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 5.5 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

91.8km downwind XC or 43.2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 13/05/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1773 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

80%

Updraft Velocity

2.26m/s 443 ft/min

Temperature

19 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 1.3 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

81.6km downwind XC or 38.4 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 13/05/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1576 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

70%

Updraft Velocity

1.7m/s 333 ft/min

Temperature

18 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 2.2 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

71.4km downwind XC or 33.6 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 13/05/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

12 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 5.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 14/05/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1255 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

1.88m/s 368 ft/min

Temperature

15 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 2.5 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

99km downwind XC or 54 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 14/05/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1918 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

2.34m/s 459 ft/min

Temperature

17 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to -2.2 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

102km downwind XC or 48 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 14/05/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WSW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

1813 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

60%

Updraft Velocity

1.75m/s 343 ft/min

Temperature

17 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to -1.1 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

63km downwind XC or 25.2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 14/05/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(SW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 3.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 15/05/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNW) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Winds Aloft

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

1225 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

1.85m/s 363 ft/min

Temperature

15 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 2.8 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

96km downwind XC or 60 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 15/05/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1571 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

2.15m/s 421 ft/min

Temperature

16 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 0.3 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

99km downwind XC or 54 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 15/05/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1314 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

1.55m/s 304 ft/min

Temperature

16 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 2.9 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

99km downwind XC or 54 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 15/05/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 3.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 16/05/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1160 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

90%

Updraft Velocity

1.83m/s 359 ft/min

Temperature

13 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 1.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

89.1km downwind XC or 48.6 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 16/05/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1345 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

90%

Updraft Velocity

2.02m/s 396 ft/min

Temperature

14 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 0.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

91.8km downwind XC or 43.2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 16/05/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

1160 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

70%

Updraft Velocity

1.49m/s 292 ft/min

Temperature

14 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 2.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

71.4km downwind XC or 33.6 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 16/05/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 1.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 17/05/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(S) 36kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 43kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1071 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

1.81m/s 355 ft/min

Temperature

9 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.7 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

36km downwind XC or 3.6 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 17/05/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(S) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 36kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1245 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

1.93m/s 378 ft/min

Temperature

9 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -3.5 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

34.2km downwind XC or 7.2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 17/05/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(S) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 36kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1307 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

1.73m/s 339 ft/min

Temperature

9 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -4.1 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

34.2km downwind XC or 7.2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 17/05/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(S) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 43kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

2 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -4.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 18/05/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(SSW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1312 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

50%

Updraft Velocity

1.89m/s 370 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -5.1 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

52.5km downwind XC or 21 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 18/05/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(S) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1545 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

70%

Updraft Velocity

2.24m/s 439 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -5.5 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

71.4km downwind XC or 33.6 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 18/05/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(SSW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

1415 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

70%

Updraft Velocity

1.7m/s 333 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -4.2 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

71.4km downwind XC or 33.6 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 18/05/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(S) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

4 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 19/05/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WSW) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1027 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

1.71m/s 335 ft/min

Temperature

9 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.3 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

99km downwind XC or 54 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 19/05/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1357 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

2.03m/s 398 ft/min

Temperature

12 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

99km downwind XC or 54 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 19/05/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1091 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

90%

Updraft Velocity

1.44m/s 282 ft/min

Temperature

12 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 1.1 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

91.8km downwind XC or 43.2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 19/05/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

6 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -0.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 20/05/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNW) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1047 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

90%

Updraft Velocity

1.69m/s 331 ft/min

Temperature

11 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 0.5 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

89.1km downwind XC or 48.6 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 20/05/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1224 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

80%

Updraft Velocity

1.89m/s 370 ft/min

Temperature

13 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 0.8 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

81.6km downwind XC or 38.4 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 20/05/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

908 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

50%

Updraft Velocity

1.28m/s 251 ft/min

Temperature

12 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 2.9 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

43.75km downwind XC or 17.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 20/05/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

5 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Guide

This is aimed primarily at the club level pilot who wants to know what to expect for the next week.

Data is calculated from the GFS model data using the RASP calculations daily.

Wind strengths are graded for aircraft suitability.

Wind speeds are average wind speeds, gusts will be higher.

Conditions are graded for how the average pilot will feel about them.

Great flying conditions for XC

Turbulent XC flying conditions

Dangerous flying conditions

Likely Poor XC flying conditions

Problems? Suggestions? Send me an email....