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WA Coverage - Provided by Dan Conrad

VIC, Mystic Area

Tue 16/09/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 36kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

915 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

1.46m/s 286 ft/min

Temperature

12 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 2.9 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

27.75km downwind XC or 7.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 16/09/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 36kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

882 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

20%

Updraft Velocity

1.32m/s 259 ft/min

Temperature

11 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 2.2 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

19km downwind XC or 4 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 16/09/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 36kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

10%

Updraft Velocity

0.57m/s 112 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 1.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

9.5km downwind XC or 2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 16/09/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

10%

Updraft Velocity

0.33m/s 65 ft/min

Temperature

7 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 0.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

9.25km downwind XC or 2.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 17/09/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

983 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

50%

Updraft Velocity

2.09m/s 410 ft/min

Temperature

6 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -3.8 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

46.25km downwind XC or 12.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 17/09/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

1099 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

50%

Updraft Velocity

2.3m/s 451 ft/min

Temperature

7 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

54km downwind XC or 18 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 17/09/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 36kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1516 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

40%

Updraft Velocity

2.15m/s 421 ft/min

Temperature

9 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -6.2 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

45.6km downwind XC or 9.6 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 17/09/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

10%

Updraft Velocity

0.72m/s 141 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 1.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

9.25km downwind XC or 2.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 18/09/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1487 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

60%

Updraft Velocity

2.32m/s 455 ft/min

Temperature

11 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -3.9 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

63km downwind XC or 25.2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 18/09/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1644 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

60%

Updraft Velocity

2.43m/s 476 ft/min

Temperature

12 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -4.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

64.8km downwind XC or 21.6 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 18/09/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1511 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

40%

Updraft Velocity

1.98m/s 388 ft/min

Temperature

13 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2.1 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

44.4km downwind XC or 12 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 18/09/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 3.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 19/09/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNE) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 43kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

838 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

20%

Updraft Velocity

1.4m/s 274 ft/min

Temperature

14 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 5.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

19.5km downwind XC or 3 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 19/09/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 40kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 54kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

913 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

20%

Updraft Velocity

1.55m/s 304 ft/min

Temperature

15 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 5.9 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

20.5km downwind XC or 1 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 19/09/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 40kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 54kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

826 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

20%

Updraft Velocity

1.28m/s 251 ft/min

Temperature

17 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 8.7 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

20.5km downwind XC or 1 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 19/09/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNW) 47kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 97kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

16 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 9.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 20/09/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 43kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

995 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

1.95m/s 382 ft/min

Temperature

5 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -5 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

29.25km downwind XC or 4.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 20/09/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(N) 40kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1192 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

1.86m/s 365 ft/min

Temperature

7 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -4.9 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

35.1km downwind XC or 5.4 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 20/09/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 40kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

1295 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

1.78m/s 349 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -5 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

34.2km downwind XC or 7.2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 20/09/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

10%

Updraft Velocity

0.42m/s 82 ft/min

Temperature

7 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 0.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

9.25km downwind XC or 2.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 21/09/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1145 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

50%

Updraft Velocity

2.21m/s 433 ft/min

Temperature

9 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2.5 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

54km downwind XC or 18 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 21/09/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1259 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

60%

Updraft Velocity

2.16m/s 423 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

64.8km downwind XC or 21.6 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 21/09/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1374 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

60%

Updraft Velocity

1.98m/s 388 ft/min

Temperature

11 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2.7 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

64.8km downwind XC or 21.6 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 21/09/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

10%

Updraft Velocity

0.43m/s 84 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 3.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

8.75km downwind XC or 3.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 22/09/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 36kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

965 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

20%

Updraft Velocity

1.29m/s 253 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 0.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

19km downwind XC or 4 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 22/09/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 40kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

10%

Updraft Velocity

0.77m/s 151 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 3.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

9.5km downwind XC or 2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 22/09/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 43kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

1107 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

1.65m/s 323 ft/min

Temperature

11 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -0.1 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

35.1km downwind XC or 5.4 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 22/09/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WSW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

10%

Updraft Velocity

0.41m/s 80 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 3.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

9km downwind XC or 3 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 23/09/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1319 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

2.22m/s 435 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -3.2 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

102km downwind XC or 48 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 23/09/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1450 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

70%

Updraft Velocity

2.31m/s 453 ft/min

Temperature

12 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2.5 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

73.5km downwind XC or 29.4 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 23/09/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WSW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1402 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

50%

Updraft Velocity

1.95m/s 382 ft/min

Temperature

13 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

54km downwind XC or 18 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 23/09/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WSW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

10%

Updraft Velocity

0.54m/s 106 ft/min

Temperature

11 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 4.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

9km downwind XC or 3 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Guide

This is aimed primarily at the club level pilot who wants to know what to expect for the next week.

Data is calculated from the GFS model data using the RASP calculations daily.

Wind strengths are graded for aircraft suitability.

Wind speeds are average wind speeds, gusts will be higher.

Conditions are graded for how the average pilot will feel about them.

Great flying conditions for XC

Turbulent XC flying conditions

Dangerous flying conditions

Likely Poor XC flying conditions

Problems? Suggestions? Send me an email....