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WA Coverage - Provided by Dan Conrad

VIC, Mystic Area

Wed 16/07/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

0.67m/s 131 ft/min

Temperature

4 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

24.75km downwind XC or 13.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 16/07/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Winds Aloft

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

50%

Updraft Velocity

0.65m/s 127 ft/min

Temperature

4 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

40km downwind XC or 25 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 16/07/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNW) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

50%

Updraft Velocity

0.72m/s 141 ft/min

Temperature

5 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

41.25km downwind XC or 22.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 16/07/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Winds Aloft

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

4 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 17/07/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

790 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

50%

Updraft Velocity

1.22m/s 239 ft/min

Temperature

6 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.9 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

41.25km downwind XC or 22.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 17/07/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

900 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

60%

Updraft Velocity

1.42m/s 278 ft/min

Temperature

7 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

49.5km downwind XC or 27 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 17/07/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

827 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

40%

Updraft Velocity

1.2m/s 235 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -0.3 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

34km downwind XC or 16 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 17/07/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

5 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 18/07/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

1032 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

1.6m/s 314 ft/min

Temperature

7 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -3.3 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

99km downwind XC or 54 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 18/07/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

1200 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

1.81m/s 355 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

102km downwind XC or 48 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 18/07/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

1004 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

80%

Updraft Velocity

1.35m/s 265 ft/min

Temperature

9 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

81.6km downwind XC or 38.4 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 18/07/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

4 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 19/07/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

909 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

50%

Updraft Velocity

1.52m/s 298 ft/min

Temperature

5 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -4.1 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

42.5km downwind XC or 20 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 19/07/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 40kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

1229 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

1.89m/s 370 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -4.3 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

34.2km downwind XC or 7.2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 19/07/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 40kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1028 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

20%

Updraft Velocity

1.4m/s 274 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2.3 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

22.8km downwind XC or 4.8 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 19/07/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 40kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

5 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 20/07/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(SSE) 4kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Winds Aloft

(N) 0kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

971 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

1.53m/s 300 ft/min

Temperature

7 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2.7 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

77.5km downwind XC or 55 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 20/07/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 4kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Winds Aloft

(N) 4kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1162 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

1.75m/s 343 ft/min

Temperature

9 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

93km downwind XC or 66 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 20/07/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Winds Aloft

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1122 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

1.39m/s 272 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.2 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

96km downwind XC or 60 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 20/07/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNE) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

5 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 21/07/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNE) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 40kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

955 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

1.52m/s 298 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 0.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

28.5km downwind XC or 6 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 21/07/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 36kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 54kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

1456 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

20%

Updraft Velocity

1.99m/s 390 ft/min

Temperature

12 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

24km downwind XC or 2.4 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 21/07/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 36kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 50kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

1070 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

20%

Updraft Velocity

1.36m/s 267 ft/min

Temperature

12 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 1.3 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

24km downwind XC or 2.4 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 21/07/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNE) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 65kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 3.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 22/07/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNW) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 47kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

10%

Updraft Velocity

0.51m/s 100 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 1.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

9.75km downwind XC or 1.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 22/07/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 36kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 54kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

950 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

20%

Updraft Velocity

1.43m/s 280 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 0.5 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

20km downwind XC or 2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 22/07/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 36kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

10%

Updraft Velocity

0.45m/s 88 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 1.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

9.25km downwind XC or 2.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 22/07/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 36kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

7 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 0.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 23/07/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNE) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

1030 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

60%

Updraft Velocity

1.5m/s 294 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -0.3 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

61.2km downwind XC or 28.8 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 23/07/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1289 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

70%

Updraft Velocity

1.77m/s 347 ft/min

Temperature

11 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.9 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

71.4km downwind XC or 33.6 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 23/07/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1172 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

50%

Updraft Velocity

1.37m/s 269 ft/min

Temperature

11 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -0.7 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

51km downwind XC or 24 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 23/07/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

7 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 0.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Guide

This is aimed primarily at the club level pilot who wants to know what to expect for the next week.

Data is calculated from the GFS model data using the RASP calculations daily.

Wind strengths are graded for aircraft suitability.

Wind speeds are average wind speeds, gusts will be higher.

Conditions are graded for how the average pilot will feel about them.

Great flying conditions for XC

Turbulent XC flying conditions

Dangerous flying conditions

Likely Poor XC flying conditions

Problems? Suggestions? Send me an email....