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WA Coverage - Provided by Dan Conrad

VIC, Mystic Area

Wed 03/09/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

1017 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

40%

Updraft Velocity

1.78m/s 349 ft/min

Temperature

11 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 0.8 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

43.2km downwind XC or 14.4 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 03/09/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 47kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

1451 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

2.23m/s 437 ft/min

Temperature

13 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.5 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

35.1km downwind XC or 5.4 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 03/09/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 47kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

1326 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

20%

Updraft Velocity

1.42m/s 278 ft/min

Temperature

13 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -0.3 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

23.4km downwind XC or 3.6 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 03/09/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 54kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

12 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 5.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 04/09/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

735 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

1.15m/s 225 ft/min

Temperature

6 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -1.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

27.75km downwind XC or 7.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 04/09/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 36kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1117 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

1.54m/s 302 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -3.2 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

34.2km downwind XC or 7.2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 04/09/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 43kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

1159 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

1.84m/s 361 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -3.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

34.2km downwind XC or 7.2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Thu 04/09/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 47kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 1.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 05/09/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(S) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Winds Aloft

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1395 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

2.16m/s 423 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

96km downwind XC or 60 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 05/09/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNE) 4kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Winds Aloft

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1505 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

2.23m/s 437 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -5.1 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

93km downwind XC or 66 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 05/09/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 4kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Winds Aloft

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1421 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

1.8m/s 353 ft/min

Temperature

12 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2.2 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

93km downwind XC or 66 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Fri 05/09/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 4kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Winds Aloft

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

11 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 4.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 06/09/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNE) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

1050 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

40%

Updraft Velocity

1.82m/s 357 ft/min

Temperature

11 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 0.5 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

44.4km downwind XC or 12 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 06/09/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 36kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

1397 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

40%

Updraft Velocity

2.13m/s 417 ft/min

Temperature

14 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 0 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

44.4km downwind XC or 12 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 06/09/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1304 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

40%

Updraft Velocity

1.73m/s 339 ft/min

Temperature

14 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 1 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

44.4km downwind XC or 12 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sat 06/09/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNE) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

13 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 6.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 07/09/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNE) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 36kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

793 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

20%

Updraft Velocity

1.22m/s 239 ft/min

Temperature

14 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 6.1 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

18.5km downwind XC or 5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 07/09/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNE) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 43kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

972 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

1.61m/s 316 ft/min

Temperature

16 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 6.3 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

29.25km downwind XC or 4.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 07/09/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNE) 32kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 43kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

high

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

10%

Updraft Velocity

0.98m/s 192 ft/min

Temperature

17 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 10.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

9.75km downwind XC or 1.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Sun 07/09/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(N) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(NNE) 72kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

17 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 10.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 08/09/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NNW) 22kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

820 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

1.18m/s 231 ft/min

Temperature

13 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 4.8 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

27km downwind XC or 9 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 08/09/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 36kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

1294 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

40%

Updraft Velocity

1.96m/s 384 ft/min

Temperature

15 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 2.1 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

44.4km downwind XC or 12 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 08/09/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(NW) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Winds Aloft

(N) 40kph Dangerous winds! It will be very rough with strong rotor and turbulence.

Vertical Wind Shear:

extreme

Thermal Height

1307 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

30%

Updraft Velocity

1.9m/s 372 ft/min

Temperature

15 C It will be cool on the ground. It will be down to 1.9 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

33.3km downwind XC or 9 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Mon 08/09/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 29kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

13 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 6.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 09/09/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(W) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

1197 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

2.04m/s 400 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

99km downwind XC or 54 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 09/09/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WNW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1563 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

2.45m/s 480 ft/min

Temperature

11 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -4.6 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

102km downwind XC or 48 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 09/09/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(SSW) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

1380 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

70%

Updraft Velocity

1.75m/s 343 ft/min

Temperature

11 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -2.8 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

73.5km downwind XC or 29.4 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Tue 09/09/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(S) 18kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 25kph Strong winds, expect rough air, Downwind tasks possible only.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

10%

Updraft Velocity

0.31m/s 61 ft/min

Temperature

8 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 1.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

8.75km downwind XC or 3.5 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 10/09/2025 1100 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WSW) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 7kph Light Winds, no turbulence expected.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1737 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

2.46m/s 482 ft/min

Temperature

9 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -8.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

99km downwind XC or 54 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 10/09/2025 1300 AES

Wind on the Ground

(WSW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

moderate

Thermal Height

1770 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

100%

Updraft Velocity

2.47m/s 484 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -7.7 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

102km downwind XC or 48 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 10/09/2025 1500 AES

Wind on the Ground

(SSW) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

1710 m Great height for flying XC.

Thermal Quality

90%

Updraft Velocity

2.05m/s 402 ft/min

Temperature

11 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to -6.1 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

91.8km downwind XC or 43.2 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Wed 10/09/2025 1700 AES

Wind on the Ground

(S) 11kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Winds Aloft

(N) 14kph Moderate winds, light turbulence possible.

Vertical Wind Shear:

light

Thermal Height

657 m XC Possible but difficult conditions.

Thermal Quality

0%

Updraft Velocity

0m/s 0 ft/min

Temperature

10 C It will be cold on the ground. It will be down to 3.4 C in the air.

XC Potential (4hrs)

0km downwind XC or 0 km Triangle Possible by Sport Class Pilot.

Guide

This is aimed primarily at the club level pilot who wants to know what to expect for the next week.

Data is calculated from the GFS model data using the RASP calculations daily.

Wind strengths are graded for aircraft suitability.

Wind speeds are average wind speeds, gusts will be higher.

Conditions are graded for how the average pilot will feel about them.

Great flying conditions for XC

Turbulent XC flying conditions

Dangerous flying conditions

Likely Poor XC flying conditions

Problems? Suggestions? Send me an email....